CIBC Asset Management Perspectives — A cautious return to normal
Global real GDP growth hit a record level in the second quarter, with estimates exceeding an exceptionally strong 12%. The good news? We project global growth will stay strong, averaging +5.6% over the next 12 months. The caveat? Developments on the economic and vaccination fronts are so good that policymakers can finally start breathing easier and begin to contemplate some form of policy renormalization.
Equity: Equity valuation is expensive, but a strong economic outlook and low interest rates should help support those valuations at higher levels than usual.
Fixed Income: Crosscurrents should continue to make it difficult for bond yields to find a clear direction and range trading remains the more likely scenario.
Currencies: Recent developments may not be enough to propel the U.S. dollar back to March 2020 cyclical highs but may allow it to move into a consolidation phase.
Commodities: Rising global demand and ongoing supply discipline (for now) should help support the oil price through the summer and into the fall.
Perspectives Executive Summary
Perspectives Video Commentary with Luc de la Durantaye
Perspectives Video Commentary *Currency Update with Luc de la Durantaye
